At the Center of Geopolitical Turmoil

“Competitiveness builds resilience, and resilience builds security,” stated Arkadiusz Marchewka, Deputy Minister of Infrastructure responsible for maritime affairs, as he opened the 22nd edition of the European Sea Ports Organization (ESPO) conference.

During the meeting, which took place on May 7 and 8 in Gdańsk, participants discussed the market competitiveness and resilience of European ports in the context of a rapidly changing geopolitical situation. The conference brought together a large group of representatives from the port sector, as well as industry experts and representatives of the maritime community from across the EU.

As emphasized during the discussions, the global operating environment in which European ports operate is far from predictable. They are situated almost at the center of geopolitical turmoil, leading to changes and disruptions in supply chains, energy shocks, threats and attacks (both physical and cyber), as well as the use of raw materials as a geo-economic weapon, combined with changes resulting from the energy and climate transition. Therefore, ports must find a way to weather this storm—and any others that may yet come—as effectively as possible, and combine their commercial role as multimodal hubs in the supply chain with the goal of contributing to the building of a stronger, more sustainable, and resilient Europe —for both businesses and citizens. Furthermore, they play a key role in enhancing Europe’s defense capabilities and must therefore simultaneously and rapidly increase their level of protection in light of this strategic role.

EU policy also plays a major role in this regard, and its goal should be to support European ports. The “European Union Ports Strategy,” announced this past March, is intended to serve this purpose; it emphasizes the evolving role of ports and aims to create a framework for their future. Hence the participation in the meeting of Magda Kopczyńska, Director-General of DG MOVE (the name of the European Commission department responsible for transport policy), and Gesine Meissner, TEN-T Coordinator for the European Maritime Space.

For this reason, Ansis Zeltins, President of ESPO, emphasized how important the EU’s port strategy—prepared and published by the EU—is in the current complex geopolitical situation. The document serves as a good starting point for discussions on the development of EU ports within the European Parliament and the European Commission. This is particularly true in light of the role ports play in ensuring economic and energy security, as well as the continuity of supply chains. This is all the more relevant given the still- ly felt effects of the war in Ukraine on the Baltic Sea and the global disruptions linked to the war in the Persian Gulf and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition to the aspects mentioned above, A. Marchewka highlighted the need to enhance the competitiveness of European ports, ensure their resilience in emergency situations, and enable them to support military operations as well. Decarbonization and digitalization are further key factors.

This is especially true in the current difficult geopolitical situation, in which the Strait of Hormuz is constantly in the news. For example, Tim Power, managing director of Drewry, identified this issue as one of the greatest challenges and threats currently facing the maritime industry. Other challenges include the war in Ukraine, U.S. tariff policy, the resilience of shipping routes, and the energy transition.

Alex Krijger, managing partner at Krijger & Partners, presented the global geopolitical situation and possible scenarios for its development, including in the context of the war in the Middle East. In his view, under an optimistic scenario, estimated global economic growth in 2027 will be 3.2%, while in Europe it will be 1.2%, in the U.S. 2.1%, and in Asia 4.6–4.8%. However, a protracted conflict in the Persian Gulf could cause global growth in 2027 to be 1–2% lower than projected, while inflation could be 6–7% higher.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, chief energy analyst for Europe at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, highlighted the vulnerability of the energy market and the problems arising from any disruptions to shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 25% of global oil demand, but “only” 0.6 million barrels per day typically flow to Europe, while as many as 12 million barrels go to Asia, so the scale of disruptions is significantly greater there. As for the LNG market, 20% of global supplies pass through the strait, and interestingly, LNG imports to Europe accounted for 11% last year and fell by several percentage points compared to previous years. In recent weeks, however, LNG exports from the U.S. have risen significantly—by as much as 30%.

Renewable energy sources could be the solution to supply disruptions. In 2025, global renewable energy capacity reached 5,146 GW, a 15.5% increase from the previous year. Europe accounts for 934 GW, the U.S. for just over 900 GW, while Asia accounts for 2,891 GW.

“The transition is not and will not be easy. But given the increasingly frequent problems with the supply of energy resources, we have no choice. We must implement alternative solutions,” concluded A.M. Jaller-Makarewicz.

There was also no shortage of topics related to the decarbonization of European ports, the EU’s policy toward ports, and a debate on the secret to the success of Polish seaports.

In addition to economic, energy, and geopolitical issues, experts also addressed topics such as Europe’s investment attractiveness, the global race for critical raw materials, and the role of artificial intelligence. Port representatives, meanwhile, were able to share their experiences in coping with change and navigating a new, evolving reality.

“The conference serves as a platform where experts from the maritime , port, energy, and geopolitical sectors discuss how European ports are coping—and should cope—with the current geoeconomic and geopolitical storm, while striving to achieve net-zero emissions and a resilient future for Europe.” “European ports are at the center of these challenges and, at the same time, play a key role in addressing them,” stated Isabelle Ryckbost, Secretary General of ESPO.

In addition to substantive discussions, the conference also provided an opportunity to network with other experts on how to address uncertainty and turn challenges into opportunities for growth.

The article was written in collaboration with Namiary Na Morze i Handel – a biweekly magazine providing expert information on the most important events and issues in the Polish maritime economy.