Bring transport back to rivers
29 September 2023
Logistical Kaleidoscope
7 October 2023
In recent months, the operation of Baltic seaports has been heavily influenced by the geopolitical situation in Europe, as well as affected by global economic trends. In 2022, the global economy grew (GDP) at a rate of 3%, which, on the one hand, marked a slowdown compared to the post-pandemic 2021 (5.9%); on the other hand, it was in line with the average rate of change in recent years (+2.8% in the 2010-2022 period). At the same time, last year the value of world trade increased by 2.7%, reaching $24.3 trillion for exports. However, this was considered a good result in the context of the war in Ukraine and the associated danger of dividing global trade into isolated blocs (WTO). It is worth noting that China cut exports and imports last year by 2% and 7.2%, respectively. Analysis of quarterly changes also shows a dip in trade dynamics in the last quarter of 2022, with growth of only 0.3% (year-on-year). Importantly, the first quarter of 2023 closed with a 1% decline in the value of global trade, which bodes poorly for the whole of this year. Admittedly, a rebound is expected in subsequent quarters, but ultimately a modest growth of 1.7% is forecast (WTO).
Going down to the European level (EU27), it can be pointed out that last year ended with economic growth of 3.4% (15.84 trillion euros), which from the perspective of the last decade can be considered a good result. Particularly high GDP growth was recorded in Ireland (9.4%), Malta (6.9%), Portugal (6.7%), Croatia (6.2%) or Cyprus (5.6%). GDP declined only in Estonia. Among the Baltic states, Poland recorded the highest growth rate (5.1%). The good performance of the economies was partly driven by international trade. Exports of EU countries increased by 2.9% last year, while imports grew by 5.5%. Despite the relatively good performance, the EU’s share of world trade fell to 13.8% in 2022 (a year earlier it was 14.7%).
However, the first half of 2023 saw minimal growth of 0.4% in the Baltic port transshipment market, which translated into a turnover of 456.7 million tons. The result was driven by positive developments, mainly in Poland (+12 million tons), Russia (+6.5 million tons) and Lithuania (+2.7 million tons), and declines in Estonia (-4.8 million tons), Finland (-3.6 million tons) and Latvia (-3.4 million tons). The first half of the year also brought some changes among the market leaders. While the top 3 positions were unchanged from last year, the port of St. Petersburg was promoted to the 4th position, driven by its 4.7% growth and a 6.8% decline in Swedish Goeteborg’s turnover.
Again, the leader in growth was Gdańsk, where transshipments increased by as much as 11 million tons (+36.1%). The reduction in transshipments, meanwhile, continued in the ports of the Baltic states. The biggest losses were suffered by Tallinn (-30.6%), Ventspils (-21.5%), Riga (-14.9%) and Klaipeda (-11.1%). This situation is undoubtedly related to the reduction in Russia’s trade as a result of sanctions (imports), as well as a shift in the flow of Russian export cargo to home centers.
On the other hand, in 2022, transshipments amounted to 892.5 million tons, representing a 0.8% decline in turnover compared to the previous year. The result consisted of declines at Russian ports (-2.9%) and stagnation at EU ports. In the case of Russia, large increases at the ports of Ust-Luga (+13.5%) and Primorsk (+7.7%) were consumed in excess by declines at St. Petersburg (-37.4%) and Kaliningrad, which essentially ceased operations as a result of sanctions (-90%). As a result of the market changes, there were shifts among the top Baltic ports, with Gdańsk right behind the port of Ust-Luga with 124.1 million tons of cargo handled. This was followed by Primorsk (57.1 million tons), Goeteborg (40 million tons) and St. Petersburg (38.8 million tons), which was only slightly ahead of the ports of Szczecin and Świnoujście (36.8 million tons). The largest declines affected the previously mentioned St. Petersburg (-23.2 million tons) and Kaliningrad (-9.6 million tons), but also Klaipeda (-9.5 million tons) and Tallinn (-4.6 million tons).
As for the Baltic container market, the first half of this year brought further declines (-5.4%). As last year, this was determined by the situation in St. Petersburg, which lost another 30% of its turnover. Other ports also lost, with Gdańsk (80,000 TEU), Gdynia (68,000 TEU) and Tallinn (41,000 TEU) losing the most. Klaipeda (+97 thousand TEU) was gaining again, as well as Denmark’s Aarhus (+44 thousand TEU) and Sweden’s Goeteborg (+16 thousand TEU).
By the way, Baltic container transshipments had already been significantly reduced last year, reaching 9.85 million TEU in 2022 (-11.6%). The key driver of the change was the disappearance of more than 1.5 million TEU from Russian ports. The winner, on the other hand, was Klaipeda, whose turnover exceeded 1 million TEU after a 57.1% increase. Thus, Klaipeda became the second largest container port in the Baltic. Gdańsk remained the leader with transshipments exceeding 2 million TEU. St. Petersburg (950 thousand TEU), Gdynia (914 thousand TEU) and Goeteborg (880 thousand TEU) followed.
Article developed with Namiary na Morze i Handel magazine
phot. Namiary na Morze i Handel magazine
